## Supplement 1. S-PLUS code for estimating parameters and calculating risk metrics from a time series.

## File List

S-Plus code:

All files are in ASCII text.

## Description

Following are S-Plus files (in ascii format) to estimate parameters and risk metrics from a time series using the Dennis-Holmes method. The file DHMethod.txt contains code to estimate -- IMAGE: Please see in attached file. --
using running sums and -- IMAGE: Please see in attached file. --^{2}
using the slope method from a time
series of counts.

The file riskmetrics.txt contains code to estimate risk metrics given
estimates of -- IMAGE: Please see in attached file. -- and -- IMAGE: Please see in attached file. --^{2}.
The following metrics are calculated: confidence
intervals on -- IMAGE: Please see in attached file. --,
probability of extinction with 95% confidence intervals, probability of decline
with 95% confidence intervals, probability of observing extinction, and probability
of observing a given decline.