Appendix C. Supporting video files of model dynamics.
| VIDEO 1. Movie of CDV circulating through a single host population of 10,000 coyote packs (100,000 individuals) at two week intervals over the course of 20 years. White squares represent packs with at least one infection at the time of sampling whereas black squares denote the absence of viral infection. The periodic outbreaks or flare-ups correspond to increased transmission immediately following a birth pulse. For this simulation we assumed 55% survival and high spatial isolation (ε = 4.5). |
| VIDEOS 2a and b. Movie of CDV circulating through two host species distributed over 5,000 landscape patches (for a total of 50,000 individuals per species, or 100,000 hosts combined), and assuming low intra-species spatial isolation (a. ε = 2; b. ε = 3), and a low inter-species transmission rate (β' = 0.001). Landscape patches are sampled for the presence of exposed or infectious individuals at two-week intervals over 10 years. Yellow and maroon squares represent landscape patches with at least one infection in only species A or species B, respectively, orange squares represent landscape patches with concurrent infections in both species, and blue squares denote the absence of viral infection in both species. Note the spatial-temporal lag in the infection dynamics between the two species, driven by low inter-species transmission rates. For simplicity, the two hosts are assumed to be identical in their host-disease and demographic characteristics (n = 10, β = 0.16, s = 0.55, ds = 0.9797, LP(μ) = 6 days, and IP(μ) = 9 days). |
| VIDEO 3. Movie of CDV circulating through two host species distributed over 5,000 landscape patches (for a total of 50,000 individuals per species, or 100,000 hosts combined), and assuming high intra-species spatial isolation (ε = 4), and a low inter-species transmission rate (β' = 0.001). Landscape patches are sampled for the presence of exposed or infectious individuals at two-week intervals over 10 years. Yellow and maroon squares represent landscape patches with at least one infection in only species A or species B, respectively, orange squares represent landscape patches with concurrent infections in both species, and blue squares denote the absence of viral infection in both species. Note that high isolation (low connectivity) and low inter-species transmission result in slightly de-coupled disease dynamics between the two host species, facilitating rescue effects following localized burnouts. For simplicity, the two hosts are assumed to be identical in their host-disease and demographic characteristics (n = 10, β = 0.16, s = 0.55, ds = 0.9797, LP(μ) = 6 days, and IP(μ) = 9 days). |