Ecological Archives E091-237-A3

David R. Breininger, James D. Nichols, Brean W. Duncan, Eric D. Stolen, Geoffrey M. Carter, Danny K. Hunt, and John H. Drese. 2010. Multistate modeling of habitat dynamics: factors affecting Florida scrub transition probabilities. Ecology 91:3354–3364.

Appendix C. The transition matrices used to project effects of alternative management scenarios for four habitat states: short (Sh), optimal (Op), tall mix (Tm), and tall (Ta) in two scrub ecosystem habitat types (scrub and flatwoods).

TABLE C1. Transition probability estimates for management scenarios in scrub and flatwoods on Kennedy Space Center, Florida 1994–2004.

Scrub burned but not mechanically treated

Sh t+1

Op t+1

Tm t+1

Ta t+1

Sh t

0.454

0.517

0.029

0

Op t

0.114

0.826

0.060

0

Tm t

0.107

0.094

0.795

0.004

Ta t

0.015

0

0.188

0.797

Scrub not burned or mechanically treated

Sh t+1

Op t+1

Tm t+1

Ta t+1

Sh t

0.345

0.626

0.029

0

Op t

0.114

0.826

0.060

0

Tm t

0.010

0.012

0.974

0.004

Ta t

0.015

0

0.188

0.797

Scrub mechanically cut and burned

Sh t+1

Op t+1

Tm t+1

Ta t+1

Sh t

0.454

0.517

0.029

0

Op t

0.114

0.826

0.060

0

Tm t

0.189

0.192

0.615

0.004

Ta t

0.015

0

0.188

0.797

Flatwoods burned but not mechanically treated

Sh t+1

Op t+1

Tm t+1

Ta t+1

Sh t

0.731

0.249

0.02

0

Op t

0.203

0.632

0.165

0

Tm t

0.061

0.030

0.897

0.012

Ta t

0.012

0

0.350

0.638

Flatwoods not burned or mechanically treated

Sh t+1

Op t+1

Tm t+1

Ta t+1

Sh t

0.281

0.699

0.020

0

Op t

0.203

0.632

0.165

0

Tm t

0.021

0.028

0.939

0.012

Ta t

0.012

0

0.350

0.638

Flatwoods mechanically cut and burned

Sh t+1

Op t+1

Tm t+1

Ta t+1

Sh t

0.731

0.249

0.020

0

Op t

0.203

0.632

0.165

0

Tm t

0.414

0.087

0.487

0.012

Ta t

0.012

0

0.350

0.638


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