Ecological Archives E093-216-A3
Sarah E. Diamond, Lauren M. Nichols, Neil McCoy, Christopher Hirsch, Shannon L. Pelini, Nathan J. Sanders, Aaron M. Ellison, Nicholas J. Gotelli, Robert R. Dunn. 2012. A physiological trait-based approach to predicting the responses of species to experimental climate warming. Ecology 93:2305–2312. http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/11-2296.1
Appendix C. A table summarizing ant responses to climate warming based on thermal tolerance and MaxEnt predictions developed with alternative global climate change models.
TABLE C1. Model summaries of ant responses to climate warming based on thermal tolerance and MaxEnt predictions developed with alternative global climate change models (GCMs).
GCM*
Site
Response
Predictor
F†
P
CCCMA-CGCM2
Duke Forest
maximal accumulation temperature
CTmax
9.80
0.00646
MaxEnt
0.166
0.689
thermal accumulation slope
CTmax
11.4
0.00450
MaxEnt
0.993
0.336
Harvard Forest
maximal accumulation temperature
CTmax
0.0884
0.786
MaxEnt
0.0739
0.803
thermal accumulation slope
CTmax
0.577
0.503
MaxEnt
0.0899
0.784
CSIRO-MK2
Duke Forest
maximal accumulation temperature
CTmax
9.87
0.00630
MaxEnt
0.0196
0.890
thermal accumulation slope
CTmax
10.5
0.00589
MaxEnt
3.04
0.103
Harvard Forest
maximal accumulation temperature
CTmax
0.0843
0.790
MaxEnt
0.342
0.600
thermal accumulation slope
CTmax
1.43
0.318
MaxEnt
0.0367
0.860
HCCPR-HADCM3
Duke Forest
maximal accumulation temperature
CTmax
12.0
0.00316
MaxEnt
1.69
0.212
thermal accumulation slope
CTmax
12.0
0.00385
MaxEnt
1.18
0.296
Harvard Forest
maximal accumulation temperature
CTmax
2.09
0.244
MaxEnt
0.0002
0.990
thermal accumulation slope
CTmax
0.0206
0.895
MaxEnt
0.462
0.546
*MaxEnt models are constructed using all 19 bioclim variables (L-1 regularization using the default settings was employed) to facilitate overall comparisons among different climate models; similar results were obtained using thermal indices (mean annual temperature, mean temperature during the warmest quarter, and maximum temperature during the warmest quarter) as individual predictors.
† (Numerator degrees of freedom, denominator degrees of freedom) for predictors: Duke Forest maximal accumulation temperature = (1, 16); Duke Forest thermal accumulation slope = (1, 14); Harvard Forest maximal accumulation temperature and thermal accumulation slope = (1, 3).