Ecological Archives E093-216-A3

Sarah E. Diamond, Lauren M. Nichols, Neil McCoy, Christopher Hirsch, Shannon L. Pelini, Nathan J. Sanders, Aaron M. Ellison, Nicholas J. Gotelli, Robert R. Dunn. 2012. A physiological trait-based approach to predicting the responses of species to experimental climate warming. Ecology 93:2305–2312. http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/11-2296.1

Appendix C. A table summarizing ant responses to climate warming based on thermal tolerance and MaxEnt predictions developed with alternative global climate change models.

TABLE C1. Model summaries of ant responses to climate warming based on thermal tolerance and MaxEnt predictions developed with alternative global climate change models (GCMs).


GCM*

Site

Response

Predictor

F

P


CCCMA-CGCM2

Duke Forest

maximal accumulation temperature

CTmax

9.80

0.00646

 

 

 

MaxEnt

0.166

0.689

 

 

thermal accumulation slope

CTmax

11.4

0.00450

 

 

 

MaxEnt

0.993

0.336

 

Harvard Forest

maximal accumulation temperature

CTmax

0.0884

0.786

 

 

 

MaxEnt

0.0739

0.803

 

 

thermal accumulation slope

CTmax

0.577

0.503

 

 

 

MaxEnt

0.0899

0.784

CSIRO-MK2

Duke Forest

maximal accumulation temperature

CTmax

9.87

0.00630

 

 

 

MaxEnt

0.0196

0.890

 

 

thermal accumulation slope

CTmax

10.5

0.00589

 

 

 

MaxEnt

3.04

0.103

 

Harvard Forest

maximal accumulation temperature

CTmax

0.0843

0.790

 

 

 

MaxEnt

0.342

0.600

 

 

thermal accumulation slope

CTmax

1.43

0.318

 

 

 

MaxEnt

0.0367

0.860

HCCPR-HADCM3

Duke Forest

maximal accumulation temperature

CTmax

12.0

0.00316

 

 

 

MaxEnt

1.69

0.212

 

 

thermal accumulation slope

CTmax

12.0

0.00385

 

 

 

MaxEnt

1.18

0.296

 

Harvard Forest

maximal accumulation temperature

CTmax

2.09

0.244

 

 

 

MaxEnt

0.0002

0.990

 

 

thermal accumulation slope

CTmax

0.0206

0.895

 

 

 

MaxEnt

0.462

0.546


*MaxEnt models are constructed using all 19 bioclim variables (L-1 regularization using the default settings was employed) to facilitate overall comparisons among different climate models; similar results were obtained using thermal indices (mean annual temperature, mean temperature during the warmest quarter, and maximum temperature during the warmest quarter) as individual predictors.

† (Numerator degrees of freedom, denominator degrees of freedom) for predictors: Duke Forest maximal accumulation temperature = (1, 16); Duke Forest thermal accumulation slope = (1, 14); Harvard Forest maximal accumulation temperature and thermal accumulation slope = (1, 3).


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