Ecological Archives E094-217-A2

Tamar Lok, Otto Overdijk, Joost M. Tinbergen, Theunis Piersma. 2013. Seasonal variation in density dependence in age-specific survival of a long-distance migrant. Ecology 94:2358–2369. http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/12-1914.1

Appendix B. Annual survival: model selection results, shrunken estimates of true survival, and maximum-likelihood estimates of other parameters of the full Barker model.

Table B1. Model selection results to investigate whether fidelity (F), resighting (p, R and R') and recovery (r) probabilities are more parsimoniously modelled with between-year variation (t), as a linear function of population size (Nlin, only for fidelity) or as constant (.). Survival is modeled as S0(t) S1(t) S2(t) S≥3(t).

Parameterization

K

ΔQDev

ΔQAICc

F012(t) Fad(t)

p1(t) p2(t) p≥3(t)

r(.)

R(t)

R'(t)

223

0.00*

4.26

F012(Nlin) Fad(Nlin)

p1(t) p2(t) p≥3(t)

r(t)

R(t)

R'(t)

209

36.25

11.95

F012(Nlin) Fad(Nlin)

p1(t) p2(t) p≥3(t)

r(t)

R(t)

R'(.)

188

101.96

34.88

F012(Nlin) Fad(Nlin)

p1(t) p2(t) p≥3(t)

r(t)

R(.)

R'(t)

188

337.64

270.56

F012(Nlin) Fad(Nlin)

p1(t) p2(t) p≥3(t)

r(t)

R(.)

R'(.)

167

408.53

298.76

F012(Nlin) Fad(Nlin)

p1(t) p2(t) p≥3(t)

r(.)

R(t)

R'(t)

188

67.08

0.00**

F012(Nlin) Fad(Nlin)

p1(t) p2(t) p≥3(t)

r(.)

R(t)

R'(.)

167

135.49

25.72

F012(Nlin) Fad(Nlin)

p1(t) p2(t) p≥3(t)

r(.)

R(.)

R'(t)

167

367.99

258.22

F012(Nlin) Fad(Nlin)

p1(t) p2(t) p≥3(t)

r(.)

R(.)

R'(.)

146

442.06

289.67

F012(Nlin) Fad(Nlin)

(p1, p2, p≥3)(t)

r(t)

R(t)

R'(t)

172

150.32

50.71

F012(Nlin) Fad(Nlin)

(p1, p2, p≥3)(t)

r(t)

R(t)

R'(.)

151

208.61

66.37

F012(Nlin) Fad(Nlin)

(p1, p2, p≥3)(t)

r(t)

R(.)

R'(t)

151

450.45

308.20

F012(Nlin) Fad(Nlin)

(p1, p2, p≥3)(t)

r(t)

R(.)

R'(.)

130

514.94

330.14

F012(Nlin) Fad(Nlin)

(p1, p2, p≥3)(t)

r(.)

R(t)

R'(t)

151

182.22

39.98

F012(Nlin) Fad(Nlin)

(p1, p2, p≥3)(t)

r(.)

R(t)

R'(.)

130

247.12

62.33

F012(Nlin) Fad(Nlin)

(p1, p2, p≥3)(t)

r(.)

R(.)

R'(t)

130

489.80

305.00

F012(Nlin) Fad(Nlin)

(p1, p2, p≥3)(t)

r(.)

R(.)

R'(.)

109

554.44

327.18

K = number of parameters. The best-supported (full) model is shown in bold. Results are adjusted for overdispersion (ĉ = 1.16, see Methods). Note that the fully time-dependent model (the first model in the list) was run using the simulated annealing optimization routine.
*QDeviance = 24479.92
**QAICc = 56977.74

 

Table B2. Model selection results for reduced fixed and random effects models of age-specific survival and fidelity, starting from the full model.

TableB1

 

Table B3. Shrunken estimates (mean ± SE) for age-specific survival from the best-supported random effects parameterization per age class (Nquad, σ² for S0 and Nlin, σ² for S1, S2, and S≥3, see Table B2). For fidelity, the maximum- likelihood estimates of the full Barker model are shown which were modeled as a linear function of population size.

Year

Population size

 

F012

F≥3

1988

415

0.46 ± 0.04

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

0.94 ± 0.008

n.a.

1989

492

0.43 ± 0.04

1.00 ± 0.00

n.a.

n.a.

0.94 ± 0.007

n.a.

1990

438

0.39 ± 0.04

0.96 ± 0.04

0.96 ± 0.05

n.a.

0.94 ± 0.007

n.a.

1991

527

0.52 ± 0.04

0.95 ± 0.03

0.99 ± 0.03

1.00 ± 0.00

0.93 ± 0.007

0.99 ± 0.004

1992

560

0.52 ± 0.03

0.91 ± 0.05

1.00 ± 0.00

0.88 ± 0.06

0.93 ± 0.007

0.99 ± 0.004

1993

593

0.57 ± 0.03

0.97 ± 0.02

1.00 ± 0.00

0.91 ± 0.02

0.93 ± 0.007

0.99 ± 0.004

1994

661

0.68 ± 0.03

0.99 ± 0.02

0.98 ± 0.02

0.91 ± 0.02

0.93 ± 0.007

0.99 ± 0.004

1995

810

n.a.

0.97 ± 0.02

0.97 ± 0.02

0.90 ± 0.02

0.92 ± 0.006

0.99 ± 0.004

1996

847

0.65 ± 0.03

n.a.

0.96 ± 0.02

0.89 ± 0.02

0.92 ± 0.006

0.99 ± 0.004

1997

1122

0.63 ± 0.03

0.88 ± 0.03

n.a.

0.88 ± 0.02

0.91 ± 0.005

0.98 ± 0.003

1998

1270

0.69 ± 0.03

0.87 ± 0.04

0.93 ± 0.02

0.85 ± 0.02

0.90 ± 0.005

0.98 ± 0.003

1999

1038

0.69 ± 0.03

0.86 ± 0.04

0.95 ± 0.02

0.90 ± 0.02

0.92 ± 0.005

0.98 ± 0.003

2000

1043

0.66 ± 0.03

0.90 ± 0.02

0.90 ± 0.05

0.88 ± 0.02

0.92 ± 0.005

0.98 ± 0.003

2001

1165

0.67 ± 0.03

0.89 ± 0.03

0.98 ± 0.02

0.90 ± 0.02

0.91 ± 0.005

0.98 ± 0.003

2002

1534

0.56 ± 0.03

0.95 ± 0.02

0.93 ± 0.02

0.87 ± 0.02

0.89 ± 0.007

0.97 ± 0.004

2003

1293

0.62 ± 0.03

0.96 ± 0.03

0.95 ± 0.02

0.88 ± 0.02

0.90 ± 0.005

0.98 ± 0.003

2004

1699

0.51 ± 0.03

0.84 ± 0.03

0.90 ± 0.03

0.84 ± 0.02

0.88 ± 0.009

0.96 ± 0.006

2005

1443

0.58 ± 0.03

0.85 ± 0.03

1.00 ± 0.00

0.88 ± 0.01

0.90 ± 0.006

0.97 ± 0.003

2006

1778

0.57 ± 0.03

0.93 ± 0.03

0.90 ± 0.03

0.86 ± 0.02

0.88 ± 0.010

0.96 ± 0.007

2007

1838

0.46 ± 0.03

0.85 ± 0.03

0.87 ± 0.04

0.84 ± 0.02

0.87 ± 0.011

0.96 ± 0.008

2008

1904

0.29 ± 0.03

0.84 ± 0.04

0.93 ± 0.03

0.85 ± 0.02

 

0.87 ± 0.012

0.95 ± 0.010

 

The standard errors associated with the age-specific survival estimates represent the RMSE estimates reported by program MARK, which give the unconditional sampling standard errors. Results are adjusted for overdispersion (ĉ = 1.16, see Methods).

 

Table B4. Estimates (and 95% confidence intervals) of resighting probabilities during capture occasions (p) and intervals (R and R') and recovery probability (r) of the full model: S0(t) S1(t) S2(t) S≥3(t) F012(Nlin) F≥3(Nlin) p1(t) p2(t) p≥3(t) r(.) R(t) R'(t).

 

 

Resighting probability during capture occasions (p)

 

Resighting probability during interval

Year

 

Age 1

Age 2

Age ≥ 3

 

of survivors (R)

of non-survivors (R')

1988

 

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

 

0.71 (0.56-0.83)

0.78 (0.64-0.88)

1989

 

0.00 (0.00-1.00)

n.a.

n.a.

 

0.45 (0.35-0.55)

0.67 (0.54-0.77)

1990

 

0.02 (0.00-0.15)

0.13 (0.06-0.28)

n.a.

 

0.36 (0.29-0.45)

0.49 (0.39-0.60)

1991

 

0.00 (0.00-0.00)

0.07 (0.02-0.20)

0.38 (0.23-0.55)

 

0.40 (0.33-0.46)

0.64 (0.51-0.75)

1992

 

0.00 (0.00-0.00)

0.06 (0.02-0.19)

0.38 (0.27-0.51)

 

0.40 (0.35-0.46)

0.55 (0.46-0.64)

1993

 

0.04 (0.01-0.09)

0.04 (0.01-0.13)

0.40 (0.31-0.50)

 

0.38 (0.34-0.43)

0.57 (0.47-0.66)

1994

 

0.05 (0.02-0.10)

0.09 (0.05-0.16)

0.48 (0.40-0.57)

 

0.48 (0.44-0.52)

0.70 (0.58-0.80)

1995

 

0.01 (0.00-0.05)

0.12 (0.07-0.19)

0.48 (0.41-0.54)

 

0.36 (0.32-0.40)

0.43 (0.21-0.68)

1996

 

0.00 (0.00-0.00)

0.13 (0.08-0.19)

0.50 (0.45-0.56)

 

0.63 (0.59-0.66)

0.57 (0.46-0.68)

1997

 

0.06 (0.03-0.12)

0.00 (0.00-0.00)

0.61 (0.56-0.66)

 

0.63 (0.59-0.67)

0.70 (0.59-0.79)

1998

 

0.14 (0.08-0.22)

0.28 (0.20-0.39)

0.62 (0.57-0.67)

 

0.61 (0.57-0.64)

0.65 (0.54-0.74)

1999

 

0.11 (0.06-0.18)

0.13 (0.07-0.23)

0.55 (0.50-0.60)

 

0.58 (0.54-0.61)

0.62 (0.52-0.71)

2000

 

0.02 (0.01-0.05)

0.04 (0.01-0.11)

0.40 (0.35-0.45)

 

0.52 (0.48-0.55)

0.70 (0.57-0.80)

2001

 

0.06 (0.03-0.13)

0.22 (0.16-0.30)

0.44 (0.39-0.49)

 

0.47 (0.43-0.50)

0.66 (0.55-0.76)

2002

 

0.07 (0.04-0.12)

0.17 (0.10-0.27)

0.43 (0.39-0.48)

 

0.46 (0.43-0.49)

0.64 (0.54-0.74)

2003

 

0.08 (0.03-0.16)

0.31 (0.23-0.40)

0.45 (0.40-0.50)

 

0.54 (0.50-0.57)

0.67 (0.57-0.76)

2004

 

0.08 (0.05-0.14)

0.29 (0.20-0.41)

0.45 (0.40-0.49)

 

0.52 (0.49-0.55)

0.56 (0.48-0.63)

2005

 

0.06 (0.03-0.11)

0.14 (0.09-0.22)

0.39 (0.35-0.44)

 

0.51 (0.48-0.54)

0.65 (0.57-0.72)

2006

 

0.04 (0.02-0.08)

0.20 (0.13-0.28)

0.57 (0.53-0.62)

 

0.51 (0.48-0.54)

0.58 (0.51-0.65)

2007

 

0.17 (0.12-0.23)

0.20 (0.14-0.28)

0.61 (0.57-0.66)

 

0.61 (0.58-0.63)

0.68 (0.62-0.74)

2008

 

0.07 (0.04-0.12)

0.28 (0.21-0.37)

0.55 (0.51-0.60)

 

0.56 (0.53-0.59)

0.61 (0.56-0.66)

2009

 

0.12 (0.07-0.20)

0.28 (0.21-0.37)

0.64 (0.60-0.69)

 

0.56 (0.52-0.60)

0.88 (0.51-0.98)

Recovery probability (r) was estimated at 0.03 (0.03–0.04). Confidence intervals are adjusted for overdispersion (ĉ = 1.16, see Methods).


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